Looks like the battery cost for a long range battery pack is $35,960 and standard range battery pack is $28,556. Not going to speculate on future costs but this is concerning.

 

Only thing I can say is WOW! I know the price of Li is skyrocketing, not to mention the importation from a foreign source, one that does not always have America's best interest at heart, can only lead to higher costs as time goes by. I'm looking forward to Toyota's solid-state batteries, coming on in MY2025, these old Wet Bats, will be gone in the same way the eight tracks went. My heart goes out to those that bought a new 8-track player; the same day cassettes hit the market (let's face it there were plenty that did). These wet batteries will leave the owners holding the bag, not to mention the Huge loss in value, it will make an eight-track player look like small potatoes! And once again, there will be plenty of guys buying wet bat tech, right up to the day the solid states go on sale!

 

Those prices are for a complete replacement, much like installing a new or re-manufactured gasoline/diesel engine?

Problems for many early adopters of a new emerging technology have long been problematic regardless the product undergoing a large change so its not surprising EV's will face this same thing. From what I've been reading just on this site a new EV today will be technologically obsolete in 3-4 years. If that becomes the case I hope today's buyers have that factored into their purchasing decisions.

I myself just don't see ICE's nor their re-fueling stations disappearing anytime in the next 20 years though. It's going to be interesting watching how this all shakes out, from the sidelines of course, without a penny invested or spent on any of it.

 

What's the warranty period on the lightning truck?

 

8 yr/100,000 miles if my memory is not failing me.

 

3yr/36k miles bumper to bumper and what Sous said is battery and powertrain.

 

None of that surprises me. Someone posted the MSRP of the battery pack of the EV6 on another forum last month. The MSRP is $29K. You see similar figures from Tesla boards, but the only time this really comes into play is when they get damaged in a collision of some sort.

But the pack replacement cost today will not be the same ten years from now. If the Lightning follows the trend of the older Tesla Model S that came out a decade ago, failures will be relatively uncommon as they age. I just peeked into the Tesla forum I used to participate in, and one unlucky owner of a '13 Model S just had a failure and was quoted $13K for a battery replacement. It's a lot to absorb, but it's a far cry from what that same pack would have cost when the car was new. Like anything else, the cost will keep declining as the technology matures. The only situation where someone could find themselves on the hook for a $30K battery replacement is if they get in an accident without insurance or pile on a TON of miles in the next couple of years and are unlucky enough to have a failure.

Accounting for inflation, that Model S would have cost $103K in today's currency. When those cars were new, a replacement pack was $45K in 2013 dollars.

 

The new, and much better technology is just around the corner, the hope that there is still an old fashion wet Technolgy battery for sale in ten years, is what in Vegas is called, "betting on the come". There is a pretty good chance no one will be making as an OEM battery for a new vehicle, today's wet bats in 10 years. Will you still be able to get one, maybe, but the cost to replace will be far more than the vehicle will be worth. Does anyone really think a lightning will be worth $30-40,000 in ten years? The truck wouldn't be worth on the open market, what you are going to spend on a new battery, and the associated shop costs (those cost will be higher in 10 years, if history is any guide). IMHO

 

You’re the first I’ve seen to take curious position that both the negative hype surrounding the current tech and the positive hype surrounding emerging tech are accurate.

I’m not a battery engineer. I think solid state batteries look encouraging, but those in the business are investing tens of billions of dollars into new wet-cell battery plants coming online in the next decade. Those billion$ say that you’re wrong.

A Model S from 2013 is worth $30-40K today.

 

Funny thing is, there are those betting 10's of Billions on the New Solid State Batteries, they say those betting billions on the old wet bats are wrong, I guess we will find out who bet the right number! Not to mention, many of those betting on wet tech, are designing their plants in such a way, as they can "convert" quickly. I may be the first you've seen that believes the old wet tech is going to catch a lot of guys "with their pants down", I wish I could take the credit, I cannot. There are many investors with far more knowledge regarding the sector than I, many are betting some of those billions on the dry, light, super- fast charging, solid state bats. As I know you know, Toyota will be selling hybrids with solid state bats, MY 2025, they [Toyota} is not sold on the demise of the ICE, as other seem to be. With the solid-state battery prototypes driving all over Japan, at this time, some believe we may even see some prior to 2025, we can only hope. Ford is changing their wet bats tech, at this time, I do not believe in 10 years you'll find a current wet bat for sale, at today's price, with our skyrocketing inflation, and the "special order only" condition the replacement bats for today's vehicles (in ten years), I believe they'll cost far more than the old vehicle with worth, hope we all live to see it.

 

I posted months ago about Toyota "very quietly" securing American patents regarding solid state batteries. In my opinion, the smart player (gambler) plays the current market and the future market. I believe this is what Toyota is doing. Once the battery technology has evolved to the next best thing from lithium to solid state, or whatever. There will be growing pains again in the way that the manufacturers make the product available to the consumer.

Sometimes it pays to be the first to market with a new technology, sometimes it does not.

 

Consider a current pickup. The engine should last 200,000 miles easily if maintained. Let's say it blows at 250,000 miles. You've got a lot of options. You can buy a crate engine. You can buy a salvage yard engine. You can rebuild the one you have. Estimates would likely range from $1,500 to whatever you want to spend.

Will you be able to get 200k out of a battery pack and electric motors? Will you be able to buy used parts to replace them with? Or can you rebuild a battery pack?

Bottom line here is that we all think these modern ICE trucks are too expensive but we have no idea....it's going to be WAY worse with EVs.

 

It almost ALWAYS pays to have the patent(s) on the new technology! Toyota has solid state batteries up and running in various prototypes driving around Japan, now. In fact, in Japan, they use one of the prototypes to do adds with their local celebrities (singers etc.) as part of Toyota's advertisements. I have never known Toyota to make a claim such as MY2025 they will be selling hybrids in the USA with solid-state tech, and not be telling the truth. A $16,000.000.000 investment into a production facility (s) cannot be considered a pilot plant! For those that believe the current wet battery (replacement) they can have installed now- for the huge number$ presented in this string, that in 10 years the price will be lower....God Bless their hearts! Remember-ford is already changing their bat tech! IMHO, in ten years the wet battery powered vehicles of today, will be worthless, a replacement battery will cost far more than the vehicle is worth. In fact, I'll go one more step, as soon as the new tech hits the market, those "left holding the bag", those with a wet bat vehicle, are going to find the market value of their vehicle just dropped, a long drop, just like the 8-track tape player did-after cassettes were introduced. The only thing the wet bat vehicle owner can do will be to drive the antique tech for a few years...

 

Valid questions, and I think the evidence today is favorable on both.

That's conclusory. I remember how the sky was falling with the advent of DEF aftertreatment in the Powerstroke forums 15 years ago. Same with direct-injected gas engines, and then again with the EcoBoost engines in 2010. The sky has always been falling, and this is the latest thing that people will use to predict a dark future.

Who's investing that kind of money? Volkswagen invested $300 million into QuantumScape. Ford and BMW went in for $150 million combined into Solid Power. I watched a good interview earlier this year with Toyota's lead researcher in the U.S. who said the tech wasn't ready for prime time, and they will lead off by putting them into low-cost, high-duty-cycle applications of their hybrid powertrains. The reason Gill Pratt explained that solid state batteries weren't currently being planned for their EVs is the high cost and uncertain future of the technology.

Toyota is also reported to be completely reversing itself on their EV adoption plan and planning to phase out their TGNA architecture much faster than usual. To say that they've got the whole thing figured out seems a bit of an overstatement.

I'm not saying solid-state batteries won't be the future of everything. But it's far too soon to say that for certain, and the overwhelming majority of investment in the coming years is in improved wet-cell technology. That's because it's proven technology that we know how to mass-produce, and the cost keeps declining. Using that same wet-cell tech, Tesla just dropped their pricing in China by almost 10%. And with the high satisfaction ratings among current EV owners, I think the future will be a lot brighter than some people think regardless of which chemistry powers their car.

The interview I referenced above:

 

My concern as a potential EV owner one day is not the lifespan of the battery pack, but the efficiency lost over the period of ownership and the cost including dealership labor to replace the battery pack.

I found the quote above in the top three search results when asking "how much efficiency does an EV lose each year".

So, 10 years after an EV was built and using current data points regarding battery technology, an EV with a max range of 300 miles would be at 240 - 210 miles of range. If a fast charger was utilized often, the range goes down "more dramatically". I don't know what the dramatic translates into, but for discussion sake let's say that is 5% per year.

This brings the maximum range to 150 miles without any large draws like A/C, seat heaters or similar accessories that are mandatory use for some passengers. My wife likes the seat heater on all year round.

That is where my concern is.

I currently own 4 vehicles where 3 are gasoline and 1 is diesel. They range from 70,000 to 265,000 miles and the two between are ~140,000 miles. The years of manufacturing are 2000, 2003, 2008 and 2016. Each of them run great and I have no qualms about driving cross country in any of them.

If an engine or transmission were to go out, it would likely cost me $3,000 - $10,000 to replace them based on which vehicle. This is considering an OEM quality part, not some discount AutoZoo POS.

Just some thoughts I have had over the past couple of days after watching the video above. Does the loss in efficiency sway my opinion on purchasing a preowned EV one day?

Not at all.

It does however put an asterisk next to a potential purchase to be well aware of the realized loss in efficiency as we shop for a preowned EV.