When you click on links to various merchants on this site and make a purchase, this can result in this site earning a commission. Affiliate programs and affiliations include, but are not limited to, the eBay Partner Network.
Good info in that link about capacity to a minimum of 70% @ 8yr/100k miles. The way I read it means it would be replaced or renewed under that warranty if not.
Good info in that link about capacity to a minimum of 70% @ 8yr/100k miles. The way I read it means it would be replaced or renewed under that warranty if not.
Sir, thank you for the link and your understanding. If this was in response to my post about efficiency concerns after 10 years of EV ownership, I may have failed to convey my concerns.
I am writing about post warranty timeframes when the dealer would place 100% of the battery replacement cost on the owner. Unless there was some sort of extended warranty, which I don't know if that is even a possibility.
Might get an extended warranty on the motors but doubtful on the battery even if it was a reconditioned one. Those questions will remain unanswered until such time it would become a reality. So we would have to wait 8 yrs or 100,000 miles to know for sure.
Sir, thank you for the link and your understanding. If this was in response to my post about efficiency concerns after 10 years of EV ownership, I may have failed to convey my concerns.
I am writing about post warranty timeframes when the dealer would place 100% of the battery replacement cost on the owner. Unless there was some sort of extended warranty, which I don't know if that is even a possibility.
I completely understand your concern. Degradation isn’t linear, though, and it levels off pretty quickly after the first year. Here’s a good article from Recurrent, an EV study organization that does a good job explaining it and presents some good data. I volunteered the data from my Tesla to Recurrent during the months that I owned it, so my car is a very small part of their findings.
Valid questions, and I think the evidence today is favorable on both.
That's conclusory. I remember how the sky was falling with the advent of DEF aftertreatment in the Powerstroke forums 15 years ago. Same with direct-injected gas engines, and then again with the EcoBoost engines in 2010. The sky has always been falling, and this is the latest thing that people will use to predict a dark future.
Who's investing that kind of money? Volkswagen invested $300 million into QuantumScape. Ford and BMW went in for $150 million combined into Solid Power. I watched a good interview earlier this year with Toyota's lead researcher in the U.S. who said the tech wasn't ready for prime time, and they will lead off by putting them into low-cost, high-duty-cycle applications of their hybrid powertrains. The reason Gill Pratt explained that solid state batteries weren't currently being planned for their EVs is the high cost and uncertain future of the technology.
Toyota is also reported to be completely reversing itself on their EV adoption plan and planning to phase out their TGNA architecture much faster than usual. To say that they've got the whole thing figured out seems a bit of an overstatement.
I'm not saying solid-state batteries won't be the future of everything. But it's far too soon to say that for certain, and the overwhelming majority of investment in the coming years is in improved wet-cell technology. That's because it's proven technology that we know how to mass-produce, and the cost keeps declining. Using that same wet-cell tech, Tesla just dropped their pricing in China by almost 10%. And with the high satisfaction ratings among current EV owners, I think the future will be a lot brighter than some people think regardless of which chemistry powers their car.
I read the article you referenced on AN, there was zero mention of solid-state batteries. There are a lot of "did not want to be ID'd" type references, but there may be some strong info there. Toyota has announced the solid-state bats will be utilized in Hybrids, MY2025, I haven't seen a single Toyota Executive quoted regarding utilizing solid-state bats in EVs. The gist of the article may be spot on when it ventures Toyota has decided to build more EVs, a lot more. I'm sure if there were 10% of the buying public that wanted pink polka dot cars, Toyota would offer some, they Like Ford are in business to make money. We won't have long to wait! In the next 27 months we will be able to see if Toyota is just BSing everyone in the world, or if they actually have a solid-state Bat Hybrid for sale. Of course, I am excluding some key board lawyer's, what about a change in regulations, or if there is a nuclear war, or......blah, blah, I think you, and the other thinking members of the board, know exactly what I'm saying.
This is old new, but as most readers here on the FTE know, Ford is changing to a different type of battery as early as 2024, Lithium Iron Phosphate (LIP), it is cheaper to make, and while a wet battery, ford thinks it will be great. Now, regarding new bat in 10 years....no telling what kind of battery will be common, or what ford will be dropping in the the 2033 f-150, I have a strong feeling it won't look like the ones they use today, or even the wet bats they plan on "switching" to in 2024, good luck to those that think in 10 years they'll just buy a new battery.....God Bless Your Heart.
People seem very concerned about the cost of the battery packs, but the lifespan is much longer than the normal length of ownership. I get that EV's aren't for everyone, but sometimes it seems like people are just looking for justifications at this point.
People seem very concerned about the cost of the battery packs, but the lifespan is much longer than the normal length of ownership. I get that EV's aren't for everyone, but sometimes it seems like people are just looking for justifications at this point.
What is the "normal" length of ownership of a vehicle and how is it calculated? Does this period of ownership reset with each owner or is it the entire life of the vehicle based on the registration and being legal to operate on a public road? I cannot say if "normal" is to purchase a new vehicle and then trade in at the 3/36 or extended warranty period or if "normal" is to purchase a vehicle just out of the 3/36. I know what is "normal" for our situation and apparently millions of other families based on the vehicles I see on the road.
The normal lifespan for a vehicle we own is about 15 years and that is 3 - 10 years after the vehicles year of manufacture. Currently, our hardest working vehicle is going on 23 years old and still runs like a top. Four years ago we inherited a 2016 MY and other than that we have a 2003 and 2008. Before the 2016 joined our inventory, we had a 2002.
Perhaps we are not normal... Well, we definitely are NOT normal, so there is that.
I am certain EV's are for our family, but when and only when the cost and time is right. If people are looking for justifications, they will find them as there are a vast amount of choices to choose from. I don't buy into all of "the sky is falling" BS as I focus on statistics, facts, technology and the laws that our elected officials turn in to facts and ways of life.
I am not focused on or looking for justifications, I have requirements. Requirements that need to be met until an EV is right for us. A similar set of requirements has been key to each vehicle we have ever purchased. So, the rising of an EV with certain requirements is not new, but normal for us. I am looking forward to our family having an EV in our inventory, for several reasons. Although, we will likely purchase an EV that is 3 - 9 years old, so the lifespan of a battery pack is a consideration, not a justification.
Again, we are not normal and perhaps the "normal" length of ownership excludes us.
It's tough to get great data, but this study suggests the average ownership period is 7.3 years.
The first mass-market EV was the Nissan Leaf of 2011, which is an awful example that bears very little to what's being made today. A better comparison was its liquid-cooled successor, the Tesla Model S, which entered series production in 2013. To date, 9 years later, there have not been widespread battery failures among those early cars. During that time, battery technology and manufacturing have improved by leaps and bounds, and that progress continues today at the fastest rate we've ever seen.
I was an early adopter of the Tesla Model 3 and the EV6, but there are lots of people who drive far more miles than me. I recently reconnected with a guy I went to AIT with on a Tesla forum. Pretty wild to catch up to him after almost 20 years, but he puts my mileage to shame. He drives all over the eastern U.S. with his 2019 Model 3 and is currently #2 on the leaderboard for most miles driven. He supercharges constantly and has never had a problem with the car other than a minor accident about a year ago.
He's also the biggest Tesla fanatic I know, but that's his cross to bear. 😆
Just as a follow-up post, I clicked into his car's profile on the TeslaFi page.
His car was rated for 310 miles when it was brand-new. After nearly 200,000 miles, his onboard computer estimates that he now gets 309 miles to a full charge. Virtually nothing for capacity loss over that time.
It's tough to get great data, but this study suggests the average ownership period is 7.3 years.
Well, there you have it... We are NOT normal... We do live very differently than the majority of the American population. We live debt free and pay for everything we buy. As a military retiree, there is no way we could (or want to even) purchase a new or even different vehicle every 7.5 years.
Originally Posted by Tom
The first mass-market EV was the Nissan Leaf of 2011, which is an awful example that bears very little to what's being made today.
Some friends of ours have one of the first generation Leaf vehicles. It has a range of 45 miles... I laughed when they first told me because I didn't believe them. They got it from their son for free because he was moving from SC to NY and didn't want to temp fate that he could get it there.
Originally Posted by Tom
A better comparison was its liquid-cooled successor, the Tesla Model S, which entered series production in 2013. To date, 9 years later, there have not been widespread battery failures among those early cars. During that time, battery technology and manufacturing have improved by leaps and bounds, and that progress continues today at the fastest rate we've ever seen.
Tom, my concern has never been widespread or even narrow margin battery failures. I realize some are of that mindset, but I just don't see this as being a problem. I am concerned about battery efficiency over a long period of time though. Say 10 - 20 after the manufacturing date of the EV. I tried to spell that out with a brief amount of detail in a previous post in this thread.
Originally Posted by Tom
He's also the biggest Tesla fanatic I know, but that's his cross to bear. 😆
Speaking of Tesla fanatics... Did you see the video of Elon walking into Twitter HQ with a kitchen sink and saying "let this sink in..." Hilarious in my opinion.
Originally Posted by Tom
Just as a follow-up post, I clicked into his car's profile on the TeslaFi page.
His car was rated for 310 miles when it was brand-new. After nearly 200,000 miles, his onboard computer estimates that he now gets 309 miles to a full charge. Virtually nothing for capacity loss over that time.
Well, this certainly bodes well for the future and efficiency of EV's. It seems that the efficiency degradation of 2 - 3% per year and even more if a fast charger is utilized often does not apply to your acquaintance.
Thank you for sharing the information you have above and throughout this sub-forum. I always enjoy reading your posts and about your EV6.
Well, this certainly bodes well for the future and efficiency of EV's. It seems that the efficiency degradation of 2 - 3% per year and even more if a fast charger is utilized often does not apply to your acquaintance.
I think there’s a lot of confusion around degradation. It’s not a linear decline; most cars lose 5-10% in the first year, and then it stays roughly at the same level for years. I went through the TelsaFi leaderboard and clicked through the cars with the most miles. I didn’t bring these up earlier because I don’t have any way of knowing whether or not they had their batteries serviced.
But here’s the leaderboard for all models:
I clicked into the top one, and he has 245,000 miles logged with TeslaFi since 2018. His range estimates through those years stayed almost constant, which implies that his battery was not replaced during that time. His 2015 Model S currently estimates it will go 297 miles on a full charge. With that kind of mileage, he must have used Supercharters frequently, which is commonly thought to harm battery life. I haven’t yet seen evidence to back this theory up.
I’m not trying to say that the batteries in an older Model S are the same as an F150. I just bring these up because older Teslas are the best datapoints we have regarding longevity, and they suggest that battery life is a heckuva lot less of a concern than some would want us to believe. Time will tell how this goes for the Lightning, but if Ford can build a battery in 2022 as good as the industry pioneer could in 2015, I think we’re in good shape.
Couple of notes, the battery ford builds in 2022-is NOT the bat they will build in 2025. For anyone even thinking about a Lightning truck, and considering a lease, look out. Ford does not believe the Lightning will hold its value as well as an ICE F150, the residual values reflect this, done by ford on a ford lease. Also, if you lease, you will not get the $7500 govt hand out on EV purchases, this in real terms runs the cost way up. Of course, if you can deduct the entire lease cost etc. this does Not apply to you. I need to add this, as there will be a "real expert" that will post a 500-word essay regarding how a lease (in his, or a special case) would be great regardless, I am not talking about the expert, but rather the average lease.
I think there’s a lot of confusion around degradation. It’s not a linear decline; most cars lose 5-10% in the first year, and then it stays roughly at the same level for years. I went through the TelsaFi leaderboard and clicked through the cars with the most miles. I didn’t bring these up earlier because I don’t have any way of knowing whether or not they had their batteries serviced.
Tom, I would like to believe that most everyone considering an EV does not believe the efficiency degradation of a battery pack is not linear or guaranteed. Not guaranteed in either direction as well though. I had not seen the statement "most cars lose 5-10% in the first year, and then it stays roughly at the same level for years" before. This only proves what I said about guarantees. The classic scene from the movie Tommy Boy comes to mind when I start talking about guarantees or warranties...
Let's look at the number a bit.
The industry (internet) standard is efficiency degradation of 2 - 3% per year with more "dramatic" loss if a fast charger is often used.
TeslaFi bought a Model S in 2019 with a range of 310 miles and now 200,000 miles and ~3 years later he has a range of 309 miles.
We don't have enough data on EV's other than Tesla to estimate where the battery efficiency of expected lifespan will be in 10 - 15 years.
Battery pack technology is evolving faster than we can keep up with it seems. Just the other day Hyundai broke ground on a "MASSIVE" EV plant in GA.
It seems the TeslaFi EV is abnormal when it comes to any sort of efficiency degradation. He has not seen the 5% - 10% loss in the first year or the 2% - 3% "estimated" loss each year from 2019. Looking solely at the TeslaFi results, even over the 3 years and 200,000 miles may be skewing the data points though. This is akin to driving an ICE vehicle to the store and back and logging the MPG's as what someone would normally seen. Obviously it is on a much smaller scale.
I did a slight amount of research to see if Tesla was immune to efficiency degradation, and obviously they are not. I selected the charge below because the 200,000 miles (coincidence they are both at 200,000) on the X-axis below indicates that TeslaFi should be seeing ~288 miles of range without the seat heaters or A/C on based on 7% loss of efficiency.
As you eluded to, not all EV battery packs are created equal. Even within Tesla there are big inequalities between battery packs.
Not all packs are created equal
For Model S and Model X, Tesla has had quite a few different battery packs over the years and they are not all as good at retaining energy capacity.
Last year, we reported on a leak of data that enabled us to get a very precise look at the difference between Tesla’s 90 kWh and 85 kWh pack.
It showed that the 90 kWh would lose battery capacity much faster than the 85 kWh pack:
I get it that my family is not normal and we typically purchase pre-owned vehicles and keep them for 1.5 - 2 decades after purchase. We live somewhat frugally and our abnormal family has a vested interest in the long term and not normal conditions of an EV past the 7.3 years of normal ownership. As a matter of fact, that is likely when we would be purchasing an EV because people may be offloading them at deep discounts. Especially if an EV battery pack becomes a right to repair part and something I can do here in the shop. Like I would an engine, transmission, suspension, etc on an ICE. Not to say that an EV will not need service to the suspension, brakes, A/C, etc after 7.3 years of ownership, but who knows. All of our ICE vehicles have only needed regular maintenance items like oil, tires, washer fluid, etc because I maintain them at a high standard.
Back on the tracks...
Originally Posted by Tom
I’m not trying to say that the batteries in an older Model S are the same as an F150.
Understood and this was never a concern of mine. I thank you for clarifying for the readers though as sometimes the true message is lost within the written words.
I'm headed out and don't have to respond in detail, but I wanted to clarify one point. TeslaFi is data logging site that people subscribe to. By providing the authentication token from Tesla's system, TeslaFi records every drive and displays a ton of very interesting statistics. I don't know how many thousands of cars they have, but I subscribed for the two years that I owned my car. I have no idea if the TeslaFi owner still has one or not, but the example I posted was simply the highest-mileage user they have on the service. The friend I mentioned earlier also subscribes to the service and has posted his numbers on Facebook in the past, which is how I know which car is his.
I still have an account but don't subscribe anymore because I no longer have a compatible car.
10-24-2022, 07:12 PM
